Most top performers of the past week have bounced sharply from their lows, which is a positive sign as it indicates buying at lower levels.
This week saw huge selling in almost every asset class as panic gripped traders on the ever-spreading coronavirus cases. Cryptocurrencies were also not spared as they came under huge selling pressure on March 12 and 13, which wiped off about $92.5 billion in total market capitalization. Now, the bulls are attempting to stage a recovery.
The fall of the past few days has shaken the belief that Bitcoin is a safe haven similar to gold and is a preferred place to hide during selling in equity markets. However, co-founder and partner at Morgan Creek Digital Anthony Pompliano said that the shutdown of economic activity due to coronavirus outbreak has led to a liquidity crisis due to which all asset classes, including safe havens, are being sold.
Crypto market data weekly view. Source: Coin360
During the previous financial crisis, gold had also witnessed sharp selling initially as investors preferred cash over holding any asset. However, later, gold embarked on a multi-year bull market. Investors who bought the dip or held on to their gold were rewarded handsomely. Pomp believes that investors who hold on to their Bitcoin will reap the benefits as central banks resort to additional rate cuts and quantitative easing to tide over the current slowdown.
In the short-term, volatility is likely to remain high as the world tries to come to terms with the uncertainty regarding the coronavirus pandemic. However, we believe that the current dip might offer one of the best buying opportunities for long-term investors after a bottom is confirmed. Let’s analyze the top performers of the past seven days to see how their charts are shaping up.
UNUS SED LEO (LEO) was the best performer of the past seven days as it managed to buck the carnage in cryptocurrencies with only a 3% fall. This propelled it into the top 10 list in terms of market capitalization.
During the week, the total LEO tokens burned crossed the 15 million mark. While Increased volatility had put other cryptocurrencies under stress, it turned out to be a boon for LEO as a large number of tokens were burned on March 12 and 13.
LEO USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The LEO/USD pair has been trading in a tight range of $0.9081-$1.04 for the past few weeks. This shows that the pair has been stable and has not participated in the recent selloff.
If the bears can sink the price below the range, a drop to the lows at $0.80512 is possible. We anticipate the bulls to defend this support aggressively. However, if the selling picks up momentum and the pair breaks down to new lows, a drop to $0.70 is possible.
Conversely, if the bulls can push the price above $1.04, a move to $1.1719 is possible. If this level is crossed, the up move can retest the stiff resistance at $1.36. We expect the bears to defend this level aggressively. However, if the bulls can scale the price above $1.36, the pair is likely to pick up momentum.
Stellar Lumens (XLM) was the second-best performer even though it slumped about 31% in the past seven days. This shows the extent of selling seen in the major cryptocurrencies.
XLM USD weekly chart. Source: Tradingview
The XLM/USD pair had been trading between $0.088708 on the upside and $0.042133 on the downside for the past few months. However, the sharp selling this week broke below the critical support at $0.042133 and dragged the price to $0.026063.
While the breakdown to new yearly lows is a negative sign, we like the way the pair has bounced off the lows. This shows strong demand at lower levels. If the bulls can push the price back above $0.042133 and sustain the level for a few days, it will indicate that the current fall was a bear trap.
We anticipate the bears to mount stiff resistance at $0.042133-$0.051014, above which the pair is likely to gradually move up to $0.088708.
However, if the bulls fail to sustain the price back above $0.042133, the bears might attempt to sink the price below $0.026063. If successful, the downtrend will resume.
Ethereum Classic (ETC) also faced the brunt of the bears and plunged about 32% in the past seven days. However, that was good enough for it to earn the spot as the third-best performer of this week. ETC’s block reward will be reduced by 20% from 4 ETC to 3.2 ETC on March 16. Let’s study the chart to find out how the market participants are positioning themselves for the coming weeks.
ETC USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The ETC/USD pair has been trading inside a large range of $14 on the upside and $3.40 on the downside for about one-and-half years. After failing to break out of the range between Jan. 29 to Feb. 13, the pair succumbed to selling pressure.
This week, the momentum picked up on the downside and the price broke below the $3.40 support to hit a new yearly low at $3.08378. While this is a negative sign, we like the way the price quickly bounced off this level, which shows buying by the bulls at lower levels.
The best way to trade a ranging asset is to buy on a bounce off the support of the range. Therefore, the traders can watch the pair for a few more days and buy if the price sustains above $4.0 levels.
The stop-loss can be placed just below the recent lows. As the overall sentiment is negative, we suggest a position size of about 40% of usual. The rest of the position can be added after the bulls push the price above the 20-week EMA. Contrary to our assumption, if the price turns around from the current levels and plummets below $3.08378, a new downtrend will begin.
XRP lost about 33% in the past seven days and turned out to be the fourth-best performer among major cryptocurrencies. Can the altcoin turnaround or will it continue to slump in the next few days? Let’s study its chart to find out.
XRP USD daily chart. Source: Tradingview
The failure of the bulls to sustain the price above $0.34229 last month attracted profit booking. Since then, the XRP/USD pair had been falling inside a descending channel. The selling picked up momentum this week as the pair plunged below the critical support at $0.17468 and also broke below the support line of the descending channel.
The pair dropped to a new multi-year low of $0.114, which is a negative sign. Though the price bounced off the lows, the bulls have not managed to push the price back above $0.17468.
This shows a lack of urgency among bulls to buy even at these levels because they are not confident that a bottom is in place. If the price continues its downtrend and breaks below $0.114, the next support is likely to be the psychological support at the round figure of $0.10. If this support also cracks, the next support is at $0.070.
Conversely, if the bulls can push the price back above $0.17468, it will indicate demand at lower levels. We will wait for the pair to break above the descending channel before turning positive.
Huobi Token (HT) rounded up the top five list with a drop of about 34% in the past seven days. The Huobi group launched Huobi Lite, a new mobile application that will allow users to trade major cryptocurrencies without any fees or commissions. A few days back, on March 5, Huobi had launched operations in Thailand undeterred with the advance of coronavirus in the region.
HT USD weekly chart. Source: Tradingview
The HT/USD pair is currently trading inside an ascending triangle. Though the price broke below the support line of the triangle this week, the positive thing is that the bears could not sustain the lower levels.
The sharp bounce off the lows shows strong demand at lower levels. Currently, the price has re-entered the triangle. If the bulls can arrest the next dip above the support line of the triangle, it will signal that the current fall was a bear trap.
If the price can sustain above $3 levels for a few days, it can offer a buying opportunity with a target objective of $5.3506 in the medium-term. A break above $5.3506 will be a huge positive.
However, if the bears again sink the pair below the support line of the triangle, it will be a huge negative as it will invalidate the ascending triangle pattern. In such a case, a drop to $1 is possible.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
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